Is a −4 hit worth it in FPL?

In Fantasy Premier League, every transfer beyond your free transfers costs 4 points. Some hits win you a season; many quietly cost points. The question is simple: will the new player outscore the old one by more than 4 points before you would have made the move anyway?

The rules

You get 1 free transfer each gameweek.
Unused free transfers roll over, and you can bank up to 5.
Each extra transfer costs 4 points, deducted from that gameweek's score.
Wildcard and Free Hit chips allow unlimited transfers without hits for that gameweek.

When a hit usually makes sense

Replacing a starter who won't play (injured or suspended), when your bench can't cover him. A 0 in your XI is a guaranteed loss; a playing replacement averages more than 4 points over a few weeks.
A double gameweek, when the player coming in has two matches and the one going out has one or none.
A big, lasting fixture swing, when you would make the move next week anyway and doing it now gains an extra good fixture.

When it usually doesn't

Sideways moves: swapping one similar player for another because of one week's form.
Chasing a price rise: a £0.1m gain is rarely worth 4 points.
Fixing a problem that a free transfer next week would fix, unless the player is out this week.

The 3-gameweek test

A practical rule: estimate how many more points the incoming player will score than the outgoing one over the next three gameweeks. If that gap isn't clearly more than 4, roll the transfer. Rolling gives you flexibility the following week, which has real value even though it doesn't show up in points.

Check your past hits

For every week you took a hit, add up what the players you bought scored over that gameweek and the next two, minus what the players you sold scored over the same period. If the difference is less than the hit cost, it didn't pay back. PointsLeak does this automatically for your whole season.

Find out how many points this costs you

Enter your FPL team ID. PointsLeak replays your season and shows the 3 mistakes that cost you the most points. Free, no signup.

FAQ

How many free transfers can I save in FPL?

Under the current rules you get one free transfer per gameweek and can bank up to five.

Do I lose points for transfers during a Wildcard?

No. During a Wildcard or Free Hit gameweek, all transfers are free.

Is −8 ever worth it?

Occasionally, for example to field a full team in a double gameweek. The bar is high: the new players need to outscore the old ones by more than 8 points.